Pachter gives his figures for all three of the main consoles in a HardwarePal article.
This is how it goes: We expect Sony’s and Microsoft’s new consoles to thrive over the next three years, with cumulative worldwide sales of 37.7 million PS4 and 29 million Xbox One consoles by year-end 2016. We do not expect Nintendo’s Wii U to fare as well, with cumulative sales of under 20 million by 2016.The analyst basically suggests that there isn't that much of a difference between the two consoles for most consumers to validate the extra $100 needed to purchase an XBO. For those that have done research, nearly all the games on PS4 run at a full 1080p resolution while XBO games are at 720p.
That difference is more notable on bigger televisions, mainly anything above 50 inches.
These numbers, of course, are if everything continues as is. They suggest that the PS4 will eventually drop to a $299.99 retail price by 2016, the XBO to drop to $349.99 by 2016, the new software retail price to stay where it's at, and that the Wii U continues to stay in development.
Currently, according to the latest numbers from VGChartz, the PS4 has exactly one million more units sold (3.4M-2.4M).
Predicting nearly a nine-million unit margin is pretty huge. We already expected Sony to get an early advantage with such a huge difference in opening retail price, but Pachter is expecting millions of Xbox 360 owners to cross-over to a company they may or may not trust.
Leaving a developed eco-system, especially for those that just play certain multiplayer games on their consoles, is incredibly hard unless Sony can show that it's easy to jump from the 360 and get things going on the PS4. That, and the bells and whistles of interactive television will be an interest to some.
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